Thank you Andy, I value your insight, I have lost over 350K on HIV, CVM, held when I should have sold, listened to people I personal know and trusted. shares when from 31,500 to 124 because of reverse splits, holding a 1000 shares now at $22, hoping for the dream come true, as Geert always said, the science will take care of the stock price. It will be a dream fulfilled to see CVM sky rocket an get back my money but see people lives changed and cancer defeated. Appreciate you Andy, God bless
Thank you, I have been a shareholder since 1998, HIV days and lost thousands of dollars based on all the reverse splits, BUT I thank God for Geert, Gavin and CVM Team, I humbly pray for the science sake, CVM works, as Geert says the science will take care of the stock price, My best to all, God bless, Carl
Hi Carl, you've well summarized the essence of investing. Stock price should be the by-product of value creation. Hope Multikine will work as expected and help miserable patients.
Lot of people don't agree about your "4 days to release the data". There is no such rule for this kind of situation. The company can disclose the results as per they see fit and the only way thay must release the information within 4 days (including weekend) is if there is a leak so, as long as there is no leaks, they can keep the results for themselve.
I assume people are concerned that in the unlikely scenario that CEL-SCI receives negative data, they can hide the bad news? I fully understand this concern but here's the point. If data is negative, CEL-SCI's long term asset (e.g. investment in the manufacturing facility) will become worthless. This will trigger a "material impairment" which requires an 8-K.
In addition, Geert receives the question about timing of data release frequently. If he has the data, he can no longer say it is still with the experts.
I believe the data will be positive and far better than the required 10% OSI. I believe that Multikine will become part of the OSI. I also believe there is sizeable chance the data won't shows before the June ASM.
Like you, I do believe that Multikine will beat 10% by a great margin. The facts support that. It's more difficult to guess the timing although many indices point to June.
At the end of the day, if investors own common shares and have conviction to hold, timing of data does not matter that much.
Excellent article. Thanks for your hard work! One question I am mulling... how would an award winning and experienced CRO underestimate the analysis phase so greatly? COVID-19 probably, unusually good results, possibly, or bad not likely.
Thank you. I do not have any fact to understand the delay but it could be any thing, underestimation of work or simply key members of the statistical team got the Covid and need a break. If the results are unusual, I would expect them to be god rather than bad for 2 reasons (i) Geert keeps being very bullish, even than before. If he has indication of bad results, he might temper his tone a little bit. This is not the case; (ii) if the results are unusually good, the FDA would likely check very carefully. Even more carefully than usual. It might be for that Cel Sci has mentioned a "double check" process.
Thanks Andy! I think there are many positive signs. Blackrock with their huge resources have ways of checking their “bets”. Nice to see them listed now as a passive stakeholder. Confidence inspiring!
It's difficult to guess the share price, especially with a potential short squeeze.
$200-400 is a valuation reference and gives a direction in the decision making. For instance, if the stock price increase to $70 after data release, I'll still wait because it is still far below the low end. However, if it goes to $1,000 maybe it's time sell.
I would distinguish between share price and valuation. The valuation reference $200-400 is more relevant for a buy-out. The share price can go anywhere up if data is positive because of a potential short squeeze.
Thanks FN for pointing out the typo.
Thank you Andy, I value your insight, I have lost over 350K on HIV, CVM, held when I should have sold, listened to people I personal know and trusted. shares when from 31,500 to 124 because of reverse splits, holding a 1000 shares now at $22, hoping for the dream come true, as Geert always said, the science will take care of the stock price. It will be a dream fulfilled to see CVM sky rocket an get back my money but see people lives changed and cancer defeated. Appreciate you Andy, God bless
Thank you, I have been a shareholder since 1998, HIV days and lost thousands of dollars based on all the reverse splits, BUT I thank God for Geert, Gavin and CVM Team, I humbly pray for the science sake, CVM works, as Geert says the science will take care of the stock price, My best to all, God bless, Carl
Hi Carl, you've well summarized the essence of investing. Stock price should be the by-product of value creation. Hope Multikine will work as expected and help miserable patients.
Lot of people don't agree about your "4 days to release the data". There is no such rule for this kind of situation. The company can disclose the results as per they see fit and the only way thay must release the information within 4 days (including weekend) is if there is a leak so, as long as there is no leaks, they can keep the results for themselve.
I assume people are concerned that in the unlikely scenario that CEL-SCI receives negative data, they can hide the bad news? I fully understand this concern but here's the point. If data is negative, CEL-SCI's long term asset (e.g. investment in the manufacturing facility) will become worthless. This will trigger a "material impairment" which requires an 8-K.
In addition, Geert receives the question about timing of data release frequently. If he has the data, he can no longer say it is still with the experts.
I believe the data will be positive and far better than the required 10% OSI. I believe that Multikine will become part of the OSI. I also believe there is sizeable chance the data won't shows before the June ASM.
Like you, I do believe that Multikine will beat 10% by a great margin. The facts support that. It's more difficult to guess the timing although many indices point to June.
At the end of the day, if investors own common shares and have conviction to hold, timing of data does not matter that much.
I'm long CVM. I am believing the positive P3.
Thanks for your excellent article.
Excellent article. Thanks for your hard work! One question I am mulling... how would an award winning and experienced CRO underestimate the analysis phase so greatly? COVID-19 probably, unusually good results, possibly, or bad not likely.
Thank you. I do not have any fact to understand the delay but it could be any thing, underestimation of work or simply key members of the statistical team got the Covid and need a break. If the results are unusual, I would expect them to be god rather than bad for 2 reasons (i) Geert keeps being very bullish, even than before. If he has indication of bad results, he might temper his tone a little bit. This is not the case; (ii) if the results are unusually good, the FDA would likely check very carefully. Even more carefully than usual. It might be for that Cel Sci has mentioned a "double check" process.
Thanks Andy! I think there are many positive signs. Blackrock with their huge resources have ways of checking their “bets”. Nice to see them listed now as a passive stakeholder. Confidence inspiring!
If the data is blinded, any positive statement is nothing but BS. Geert keeps being billuish- on what basis?
Can you remind me the revenue c sci has made over 30 years vs the compensation of Geert?
Well done! Just FYI: You say "(study ends when 928 deaths are reached)" Should be 298.
Is your price target after we get fda approval? or after final data release
It's difficult to guess the share price, especially with a potential short squeeze.
$200-400 is a valuation reference and gives a direction in the decision making. For instance, if the stock price increase to $70 after data release, I'll still wait because it is still far below the low end. However, if it goes to $1,000 maybe it's time sell.
After final data release, $200-800 (10b-40b) is the price target.
I would distinguish between share price and valuation. The valuation reference $200-400 is more relevant for a buy-out. The share price can go anywhere up if data is positive because of a potential short squeeze.
Fully agree.